After the investigations published in recent months on Monday's Sole-24 Ore, from which a decidedly more varied picture of the trend in real estate prices emerged in 2003 compared to the previous year, the situation in the three cities covered by today's investigation shows a tendency towards stagnation, more evident in Venice and Cagliari, less decisive in Genoa. At a European level, however, 2002 is fully within the golden period: Bnl data indicate that throughout last year prices grew so much as to suggest a 'speculative bubble'.
The three cities. In Venice, compared to last September, when the last focus was on the city's real estate market, things went well until the end of 2002 while today - but only in some areas - there is a slight decline. In areas such as Salute-Accademia, the elegant typology has gone from a minimum-maximum of 4,630-5,645 to 4,600-5,600 euros per square meter; and even for medium properties the average goes from 3,640-4,835 to 3,600-4,700 euros. In the Giudecca, a traditionally more accessible area, for a medium-sized apartment, there has been an increase: in September the asking prices were between 2,310 and 2,675 euros per metre, now they range from 2,350 to 3,100 euros, while in the luxury apartment prices the minimum has risen but the maximum has fallen.
In Cagliari the situation is more inclined towards stasis or slight increases, as in the most popular neighbourhoods, such as Piazza Yenne, in September the elegant price ranged from 1,650 to 2,000 euros, now it ranges from 1,850 to 2,400. While in Genneruxi prices rise only for elegant apartments and stop for the economical ones. Finally, in Genoa, the best situation is recorded in terms of price growth: from the centre, where even the cheap price goes from a minimum-maximum of 940-1,250 to 1,000-1,300 euros per square metre, to the more popular areas such as Sampierdarena, where the increase goes from a minimum of 4% (the maximum of the average) to 15% (the minimum of the elegant).
In Europe and outside. The economic report of the Research Office of the National Labor Bank dedicates ample space to examining the situation of the real estate market in Europe, photographed at the end of 2002: the increases recorded range, on the basis of seven years, since 1995, from a minimum of 26% in Italy (reduced from the lowest point of the previous real estate cycle) to an astonishing 203% in Ireland, passing through 119% in the Netherlands, 107% in the United Kingdom, 77% in Spain, 60% in Sweden. Only Germany, in Europe, has recorded a 2 percent decline since 1995.
The BNL report also highlights a varied situation overseas: in the USA these seven years have recorded an increase of 48%, in Canada 15%, in Australia 64%. In Japan, however, the crazy surge in the most expensive prices in the world seems to have slowed down, with a -2 percent.
According to the Bnl, the higher increases probably hide the danger of a speculative bubble. It is observed - says the Bnl - how a persistent deviation in prices from the long-term trend of real income, growth rate, long-term interest rates, stock market can be a 'useful alarm bell'. According to the Bnl, among the countries at risk of a bubble appears to be the United Kingdom above all, where the increase in the last three years alone was 50 percent, 25% in 2002.
source: Il Sole 24 Ore
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