Mortgage rates at historic lows

The positive moment continues for those who have to take out, renegotiate or subrogate a mortgage, with rates recording a new historic low. This is the picture described by the latest report from Crif and MutuiSupermarket relating to the third quarter of this year.

Un esempio concreto? «Per una operazione di mutuo di 120mila euro, durata 20 anni, – esemplifica una nota – valore immobile 220mila euro, i migliori spread si posizionano a ottobre 2016 attorno all’1% per i mutui a tasso variabile e attorno allo 0,9% per i mutui a tasso fisso».

The quarterly average of the best spreads «therefore continues to record a favorable trend of constant contraction throughout 2016, passing through variable rates from 1.2% in the second quarter to .1% in the third quarter and, for fixed rates, from 1.1% in the second quarter to 0.9% in the third quarter».

At the level of new mortgage disbursements through the online channel, the subrogation purpose continues to decrease its weight on the total disbursements also in the third quarter of 2016, going from 65% of the total disbursements in the third quarter of 2015 to 54% in the third quarter of 2016. The incidence of subrogations and substitutions on the total mortgage applications submitted to credit institutions also through traditional channels, however, in the first half of the year is instead attested according to Crif and MutuiSupermarket around 24%: «a trend is mainly attributable to the reduction in the pool of potential borrowers interested in subrogating the mortgage after quarters in which many families have already opted to move their financing».

The weight of the fixed rate on the online channel explains approximately 50% of the total requests compared to 37% recorded in the third quarter of 201: «the complicity of this increase appears to be the continuous reduction of the IRS reference indices which began at the end of 2015 and the weight of new mortgage disbursements with subrogation purposes, which on the online channel in the third quarter of 2016 were 74% at a fixed rate».

La Bussola also provides a trend on the value of properties provided as collateral for mortgages with "a further reduction in prices per square meter" equal to -1.9% (after recording a -2.4% for the whole of 2015 compared to 2014). However, analyzing the different types of residential properties, «in the quarter of observation the price/m2 for new properties shows, for the first time after 8 quarters of contraction, a positive trend, recording a +0.5%, while the price/m2 of new properties suffers a reduction equal to -4%».

«It is not certain that these optimal conditions will persist in the next few quarters - comments Stefano Rossini, administrator and founder of MutuiSupermarket.it -. It is in fact reasonable to expect a progressive recovery in real estate prices, especially in light of the +23% in the number of sales in the first half of 2016 and the first increase in prices per square meter for newly built properties, equal to +0.5%, after 2 years of non-stop contractions. In addition to this, after 3 years of continuous cuts, with the arrival of autumn some credit institutions began to slightly revise their offering conditions upwards, signaling a change of direction in their commercial policies. It will therefore be necessary to monitor the evolution of these key indicators to better understand the growth prospects of the mortgage market in the coming quarters".

At the end of September, the Bank of Italy issued version 17 of the Supervisory Provisions for banks and financial intermediaries (Respectively Circular no. 285 of 17 December 2013 and Circular no. 288 of 3 April 2015). «The changes contained here – comments Stefano Magnolfi, director of real estate services at Crif – following a public consultation which ended on 5 September, are aimed at implementing two articles of the Consolidated Banking Act introduced to implement the Mortgage Credit Directive in Italy through the Mortgage Directive. The topics covered concern specifically and in detail the evaluation of the properties used as collateral for the exposures, the professionalism and independence requirements of the appraisers, the appraisal activities of the properties and their assignment to external appraisers. With these provisions, the activities related to the evaluation of real estate collateral definitively acquire a dignity strictly linked to management, strategic supervision and risk mitigation. Furthermore, the importance of compliance with international and national assessment standards is re-emphasized. Attention and rigor on policies and processes to be applied to the evaluation of properties which are also explored in depth in the ECB Guidelines (now in consultation) with reference to non-performing real estate loans".