The feeling of less dynamism that has been felt in the main Italian real estate markets in recent months is also confirmed by the performance of the Milanese market, in which demand is now oriented towards quality homes while good quality supply appears increasingly rarefied. Milan is a trend among big cities. But it must be said that never before in this real estate cycle have the smaller centers recorded a decidedly long wave of changes: even today the increases have not completely stopped while in the large cities the unanimous opinion of the operators is oriented towards settling, waiting for a decline.
Il Sole-24 Ore on Monday interviewed the three associations of real estate agents (Anama, Fiaip and Fimaa) and the two major operators (Gabetti and Tecnocasa): the general feeling is that two important indicators, namely the difference between the asking price and the actual sales price and the average time between assignment to the agency and deed, are consistent with the operators' forecasts.
According to Alberto Bellini, president of Anama, in the last quarter the times were extended by at least a month compared to the last half of 2002, when it took about three-four months to sell. 'While the difference between the seller's proposals and those of the buyer remains at 10 percent - says Bellini -, especially if the deed is close to compromise, thanks above all to the rates, the spreads are actually decreasing and the 20-year fixed rate is at 6 percent'. As for the market prospects, 'In Milan and Rome, prices are now at the top and there is stability, awaiting a decline. In other cities there is still an upward trend, especially for new houses. But the brick is still seen as a safe investment and the number of sales is not decreasing; there is still a balance between supply and demand, which remains high. Favorable mortgages help a lot.
According to Alberto Pizzirani, president of Fimaa, 'The brick market continues to run, but on three different tracks: houses and valuable areas, with prices still rising; mid-level housing, whose prices have begun to stagnate; and finally the low quality range, where the gap between prices requested at the start of negotiations and final prices is widening. As for the average completion times for a sale, they have undergone a slight lengthening: 'In general, they are between 2 months and 4 months - specifies Pizzirani - but they increase if the person selling the house is the one selling'.
Along the same lines, Alessandro Ghisolfi, head of research at Gabetti: 'The discounts for low-quality properties, also involved in the exaggerated price growth of recent times, are now at least 10 percent and in some cases even 15 percent, whereas until a couple of years ago they did not exceed 5 percent'. A difference that can also be found in the sales times: 'For medium-sized properties equipped with important 'options' such as a parking space - says Ghisolfi - in Milan the deal is concluded on average in a month and a half, it takes at least double if it is a low quality apartment in need of renovation'.
Rocco Attinà, head of the Fiaip Observatory, indicates the price gap between 10 and 15%. 'And the waiting months are now four, slightly increasing'. Mortgages, Attinà specifies, are chosen in a percentage higher than two thirds of purchases. A fact that Pizzirani also agrees with.
Tecnocasa underlines the profound differences depending on the city: the analysis of spending availability in April highlights that 43.8% of people want to spend less than 100 thousand, 23.7% between 100 thousand and 150 thousand, 17% more than 199 thousand and 15.5% between 150 thousand and 199 thousand. 'What can be seen overall - says Guido Lodigiani, head of the research office - is an increase, compared to January, in intermediate spending classes'. The city in which on average potential buyers are willing to spend the most is Rome, with 33.5% of requests over 199 thousand.
source: Real Estate Observatory
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