by Maria Teresa Scorzoni
The real estate market is constantly growing, in some cities house prices are skyrocketing, the rope is pulled like a violin string. Is it possible that it won't break? Gualtiero Tamburini, head of the Nomisma Observatory on the real estate market, rejects the hypotheses of catastrophe. Professor Tamburini, are we in the presence of a speculative bubble? In my opinion, no and I think that the risk, in this sense, is minimal. It is true that prices have been growing since 2000 and that in the first half of 2004 we expected a slowdown, while we recorded record increases, but it is also true that, in many areas, prices, net of inflation, have not reached those of '92. It will be difficult to go back. Could a stock market recovery lead to a downturn? No, on the contrary. Growth in the sector began in the midst of the 'new economy boom', that was indeed a bubble. Money in real estate, by its nature, is parked, not liquid. It is true, however, that the general sense of insecurity, linked to the international situation and scandals, has pushed people to look for a solid asset such as bricks. Could a possible increase in interest rates create difficulties? I would say no. The increase in the cost of money, linked to the uncertain conditions of the global recovery, will probably be modest and will not put those who have taken out a mortgage in crisis. In the real estate market what causes a sharp drop in prices is the auctioning of many properties. Today there are around 7 thousand auctions every year, against 750 thousand sales. There is nothing to worry about.
source: Il Sole 24 ore
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