2003 still ends on a strong note for the Italian real estate market, even if with signs of a slowdown compared to previous years. This is what emerges from the Scenari Immobiliari report released on Friday. The final estimate for 2003 of the turnover (value of goods traded) generated by the Italian market is a growth of 7% to 103.3 billion euros, while the forecast for 2004, based on the hypothesis of a gradual recovery of the economy, is an increase of 3.9% per year. The report actually notes how the trend has slowed down after the excellent performances recorded from 2000 to 2002, with annual variations of over 11% and 7.8% respectively. However, 'if the alarm bells of the real estate crisis are ringing in mature markets, in Italy these signs seem distant', underlines Scenari Immobiliari. In the Peninsula - explains Scenari Immobiliari - the limited dynamics of families' disposable income and the growing spending on housing have not brought the house price/disposable income ratio index to levels above the average as in some European countries. Household indebtedness, despite the growth observed, remains low compared to disposable income and this still leaves room for a further upward push in mortgage demand. The repositioning of wealth in the portfolio of Italian families towards real estate thus continues against the backdrop of a scenario of low interest rates and uncertainty in the financial markets. This is, after all, the context that has allowed the continuation of the positive trend of the real estate market throughout the world, with the only two exceptions of Germany and Japan. The total turnover for the European market is estimated at 600 billion at the end of the year (+2.8%). Only Spanish growth is higher than Italian growth (+11% to 71.8 billion). France, on the other hand, has to settle for +1.7% to 145.7 billion, while Germany fell by 0.5% to 171 billion, which still allows it to maintain the scepter of the highest turnover in the Old Continent. In Europe almost 15% of GDP comes from real estate. Furthermore, Italy is the country that has the highest percentage of real estate wealth, which amounts to 62% of total wealth, followed by Germany with 58%, Great Britain with 55% and France with 55%, against a European average of 57%. In Italy it was once again residential, which represents two thirds of turnover, that drove the entire sector. The sector should close 2003 with a turnover of 84.5 billion, driven by the combined increase in prices (+7.2%) and sales (estimated at 870-900 thousand). For 2004, prices are expected to stabilize above the inflation level, on average at 4.5%, while sales should drop to 800-850 thousand. Overall, turnover is expected to be +3.8%. Furthermore, the percentage of families choosing a home as an investment asset is increasing: 26% in 2003 compared to 8.7% in 2002. The residential tourist market is expected to reach 2.6 billion at the end of the year, an increase of 8.3% with further growth to 2.75 billion in 2004. For the tertiary-office sector, the 2003 trend is positive, but lower than the two-year period 2001-2002. The estimated turnover at the end of the year is 5.93 billion (+7.8%), while for the industrial sector the slowdown phase that began in the second half of 2002 continues, with a turnover of 4.1 billion (+5.1%). For the commercial sector, 2003 should close with a turnover of 6.15 billion.
source: CNN Italy
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