MILAN - Despite all predictions, the real estate market continues to run without any signs of slowing down. And it is Milan that is driving this moving train: in the first half of 2002 the Milanese capital saw average house prices increase in the order of 8%, which brings the overall increase (projected) for 2002 to 15 percent. But prices have grown everywhere, along with volumes: in large cities the average half-yearly increase in house prices is 6%, in provincial capitals 5.4%, in hinterland municipalities 3.9 percent.
This, in short, is the picture that will be drawn tomorrow as part of the Tecnocasa real estate observatory (scheduled in Milan, at the Circolo della Stampa), which 'Il Sole-24 Ore' is able to anticipate.
'The trend of the Italian real estate market in the first half of 2002 was very positive, continuing a cycle that began in 1998 - explains Guido Lodigiani, head of the Tecnocasa research office -. The price increases were generalized, but if we examine the market since the beginning of 1999 the differential that was created between the metropolises and the provincial capitals was, to the advantage of the former, in the order of 10 percent. The gap reaches 11% when compared with the hinterland municipalities.
The increases in prices, according to the Tecnocasa Observatory, were compared with smaller increases in rents. 'At an Italian level - says Lodigiani - the increase was 3.4%, although in the large cities it was higher. Overall, however, residential yields have fallen. In Milan the yield on a two-room apartment is around 5%, in Rome it is 5.4 percent.
It is interesting to note that the preference went to used homes, which grew by 1.1 percentage points more than renovated ones. 'Among other things, it has become clear that new types of buyers have appeared on the market - explains Lodigiani - such as immigrants and single-unit families. Which has seen the prices of affordable housing types increase more in percentage terms. Thus, it is precisely studio and two-room apartments that are most in demand in large cities and in Milan the demand for this category of properties represents approximately 66% of the total, while in Rome it represents 51%.
'In the mortgage sector there has been an increase in the number of operations - continues Lodigiani -. The three-month Euribor rate is approximately one point lower than that of a year ago (3.46% compared to 4.53%) and this has facilitated the taking out of mortgages. In fact, the ratio between the number of mortgages and the number of sales has increased. There was then a leap in the average amount disbursed, which went from around 68 thousand euros in the first half of 2001 to over 80 thousand euros currently. Among the causes we must also consider the lengthening of the average repayment times, which allows the family to dilute the monthly outlay'. And now? 'Making predictions in relation to a real estate cycle now in its fifth year is certainly not easy. Mortgage interest rates, the confirmation or otherwise of tax breaks and, more generally, customer expectations will play an important role. Precisely the perception of bricks as a safe haven, in a period of uncertainty like the current one, may prove to be the necessary element for the continuation of the cycle also for next year'.
source: Il Sole 24 Ore
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