It has grown faster than the rest of Italy, it is growing and will continue to grow. The South is what could be defined as the rising star of the real estate market, even if the pace of the sprint hides figures which, in absolute terms, are not yet exactly exciting.
According to the first Southern Real Estate Scenarios Forum which took place in Capri (for details, see Mondo Immobiliare - Il Sole 24 Ore, on newsstands Monday 27 May) the Southern regions represent 10.7% of Italian real estate, with a 2001 turnover of around 12 billion euros: 'These numbers do not do justice to the real importance of the South, especially in prospective terms - explained Mario Breglia, director of Scenari Immobiliari - if they are not accompanied by the growth rates of the area'. In the last five years, according to the data presented, the real estate market in the South has in fact almost doubled (+92%), compared to an increase of 42% for the Italian average. The increase was driven by the residential sector, with the number of annual sales rising from 112 thousand in 1998 to the 170 thousand expected for 2002.
Reducing the observation horizon, the increase in overall real estate turnover in the South between 2000 and 2001 was equal to 19.3 percentage points, almost nine points more than in the rest of Italy.
Expectations, then, are particularly positive, if it is true that by 2003 foreign investments in the South should triple compared to 2001, exceeding 700 million euros. To which must be added the investments of real estate funds and large Italian investors who, so far, have purchased for around 800 million euros (last five years), less than 10% of the total investments made. However, according to operators, such optimism clashes with the real situation in the South which, if on the one hand offers enormous potential for expansion, on the other hand balances this positive data with an almost total absence of precise data on the sector.
Italian real estate funds have so far invested no more than 2% of the total in the South, even if there are areas of intervention with strong potential. Among these, certainly that of RSAs (residences for the elderly) and the tourism sector.
Leading the ranking of the average change in average sales prices in the residential sector is Naples which, in the period from April 2001 to April 2002, achieved an increase of 9.2% (against a national average of 6.8%), followed by Catanzaro (+8%), Bari (7.9%) and Chieti (+7.8%), while bringing up the rear are Benevento (4.4%), Palermo (4.6%) and Campobasso (4.7%). Going into the details of the sectors instead, the residential sector in the South will continue to grow, with an increase in turnover expected at +6.9%, reaching the threshold of 170 thousand units. The tertiary sector, which is growing, should reach 420 million euros, while the commercial sector follows the national growth rate (4-5%).
The tourism sector, however, is experiencing strong growth and, after having grown by 15.2% in 2001 (to 380 million euros), should maintain the same growth rates.
source: Real Estate Observatory
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