The market runs (and will not stop)

Here they are again, the repentants of the brick. They return to crowding in front of the windows of real estate agencies after queuing at the banks. Disappointed by Piazza Affari, the latecomers return to the good old brick.
The real estate market cycle, which had given the first signs of revival already in 1998, showing a renewed interest in purchasing, has gradually gotten back on track, also recording an increase in values. But the turning point came shortly after September 11, 2001, with an acceleration in more recent times, especially in terms of prices. Within a year, the average Italian increase was, according to Scenari Immobiliari, 5.2%, with Venice at the top (8.1%) and the peak in Catania (2.9%).
And in the first six months of this year, prices - as recorded by the Tecnocasa real estate observatory - grew by 3.9% in the hinterland, by 5.4% in the provincial capitals and by 6% in the large cities. In the space of a year and a half, the difference in prices between the latter and the provincial capitals was 10%, rising to 11% in comparison with non-capital locations.
The analyzes of other research offices and operators released between the end of July and last week also agree on the growth: for Gabetti, the average increase is +4.2%, for Nomisma it is 5.4%, for Fiaip it is between 6 and 7 percent. The figure for Confconstruction is more contained, just over one percent.
Analyzing the increases in the first half of the year by geographical area, we note that the heaviest ones, on average, in the first half of the year, occurred in the capitals of Central Italy. The Tecnocasa Observatory - which filters the purchase and sale contracts stipulated through over 2,700 affiliated agencies - estimates increases in the area at 6.9%, compared to 6.2% in the South and 4.4% in the North. Average values ​​that do not take into account the surges in some large cities and, above all, the boom in prices for the most valuable areas or properties.
That the brick has regained its character as a refuge asset is also demonstrated by the comparison with returns. 'The significant increase in prices - states Guido Lodigiani, head of the Tecnocasa research office - is compared with limited variations in rents. In six months, the increase was 3.4% at the Italian level, with a better trend in large cities. Which did not prevent a general reduction in returns. In Milan, for a two-room apartment the gross yield was 5% and in Rome 5.4.
Investors can still turn to garages and parking spaces which, especially in larger cities or medium-sized ones with a large historic centre, guarantee an interesting economic return. Prices for the two types of properties have increased, since the beginning of the year, by 4.9 and 3.7 percent respectively.
The typologies. The hunt is always open for one- and two-room apartments. The three rooms are holding up for now, but in the future they will give way to smaller residences. The market preferred used cars, which saw a growth in prices of 1.1% higher than refurbished ones. A trend attributable to the driving effect linked to tax deductions for recovery interventions.
The interest in smaller denominations is also driven by the greater frequency with which foreign buyers with limited economic resources enter the market (see the other article on the page) and families with only one member (singles, both young and elderly).
Small types of requests concern an ever-increasing portion of potential buyers. In Milan the sum of requests addressed to one- and two-room apartments reaches 65.9% and in Rome 50.8.
'The variations - explains Lodigiani - are in harmony with the map of the city's urban planning projects. In the Barona area of ​​Milan, for example, property prices have fallen due to the work underway in Piazza Maggi. In Rome, house prices especially rose in Prati-Francia (10.3%) and Monteverde-Aurelio (8.4%), and it is above all the peripheral areas that are better connected to the center that gain more value.
Mortgages. The number of mortgages granted in Italy in the first half of 2002 increased by 18% compared to the previous one, but also the average amount of the same. The average spending availability in large cities, however, is decreasing after many months for larger apartments.
The forecasts. 'It's difficult to make predictions - says Lodigiani -. Considering that growth has been ongoing since 1998, a slowdown was expected but instead the market has grown further.' And many think that it will continue to do so, as long as the stock market continues its current trend and as long as the fiscal incentives for restructuring last.

source: Il Sole 24 Ore