The outgoing director general of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo de Rato, had not hidden his concern and had just reiterated in an interview with the "Financial Times" that the US subprime mortgage crisis is serious and will not fail to contaminate the growth of the world economy. Yesterday the first numbers quantifying the effect of this contamination also came out, deflating next year's global growth by 0.4 percent. An effect from which, obviously, not even Italy is exempt.
According to the latest draft of the "World economic outlook" which will be presented in Washington next week, the growth rate of the Italian economy is also destined to suffer a contraction of four tenths of a point of GDP in 2008: our GDP will grow this year by no more than 1.7% and next year it will stand at 1.3 percent. This is a reduction compared to what the same men of the Washington organization still predicted last July: there is a downward adjustment of 0.1% compared to the current year and a more substantial adjustment for 2008, for which three months ago a growth dynamic of 1.7 was forecast. The only small consolation: the lower growth will lead to better containment of the price rise and inflation, instead of 2%, will to 1.9 next year.
source: il Sole 24 Ore
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