Fimaa: the residential sector today and future forecasts

The real estate market is still robust and healthy in the first quarter of 2022, albeit with more limited growth percentages. To say it is theFimaa Research Office, which also contains forecasts for the next quarter and an analysis of the market's strengths and weaknesses.

After the boom of 2021, the number of home sales continues to grow in the first quarter of 2022, but with less intensity: in the opinion of 54.2% of real estate operators Fimaa - Italian Federation of business brokers, member of Confcommercio-Imprese per l'Italia - is stable at the levels of the last quarter of 2021.

This happens for two reasons: the demand for purchase which is still perceived as dynamic - as in 2021 - by 56.3% of real estate agents, and the quantity of offers for sale which is perceived as decreasing by 51.2%. The result of this "imbalance", in the opinion of the majority of the sample (58.4%) is a trend percentage change in prices completely similar to that seen at the end of the previous four months, equal to +4%.

The responses to the survey, provided by the surveyors of the Fimaa Territories, concerned the cities and provinces of: Agrigento; Alexandria; Ancona; Aosta; Arezzo; Ascoli Piceno; Asti; Belluno; Bergamo; Bologna; Bolzano; Brescia; Toasts; Cagliari; Campobasso; Catania; Chieti; Como; Cosenza; Cremona; Crotone; Wedge; Enna; Ferrara; Florence; Foggia; Genoa; Gorizia; Grosseto; Imperia; La Spezia; Latin; Lecce; Lecco; Livorno; Lucca; Mantua; Milan; Modena; Naples; Novara; Nuoro; Oristano; Padua; Parma; Pavia; Pesaro and Urbino; Pescara; Piacenza; Pisa; Pistoia; Pordenone; Lawn; Ragusa; Ravenna; Reggio Calabria; Rieti; Rimini; Rome; Savona; Siena; Syracuse; Sondrio; Taranto; Teramo; Trapani; Trent; Treviso; Trieste; Udine; Varese; Venice; Verbano-Cusio-Ossola; Vercelli; Verona; Viterbo allowing us to draw a cyclical and significant picture of the current market moment and the next 4 months. Which, according to the sentiment gathered, will continue at the same levels as the four-month period just ended, both in terms of the number of trades (62.2% of opinions) and the average sales prices (68.4% share).

The market, according to more than a quarter of the sample, it is still driven by benefits (extended through 2022) for young people under 36 years old (tax and mortgage exemption up to 100%), followed by investment purchases (23.4%). In third place with 20.3% of the opinions are the interest rates on mortgages, considered still competitive (these three items obtained 69.3% of responses).

Among the more marginal reasons, based on the opinions expressed, are (in decreasing order):

• The investments in real estate by foreigners (6.6%);
• I first home replacement processes; prices still considered competitive; interest in historic centers (overall 4.5% of responses);
• There demand for second homes outside the large centres, to be experienced on all occasions (work, study, holiday; 2.5% of responses).

Among the weak points of the market we highlight, in decreasing order:

• Concerns about the expected rise in interest rates on mortgages, with 19.6% of preferences and about the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine (chosen by 18.2% of the panel);
• In third place in the decreasing ranking with 17.8% of the choices are the opinions regarding the characteristics of the supply considered no longer as abundant as in the past and which sometimes struggles to satisfy demand;
• In fourth place is concern about the increase in real estate taxation with the announced appraisal reform (14.1%): these first four points of weakness obtained 69.7% of opinions;
• This is followed by the increase in raw material prices which generates increases in the prices of new homes (11.5%);
• Family confidence undermined by the chiaroscuro performance of the economy (11%);

With 7.7% of opinions, the 110% measure did not produce the desired effects

The rental market

During 2021, the number of rented homes in Italy was over 1 million and 365 thousand, almost 6% more than the previous year: based on the distribution of responses obtained from real estate operators, in the first 4 months of 2022 the demand for rental apartments shows no signs of decline with an increasingly reduced rental product offer, which shows no signs of growth. Thus, even in the first quarter of 2022 and, in anticipation of the second quarter of the year, the majority of the sample of respondents reports a number of rental contracts and rents at the same levels as last year.

The holiday homes

The expectations expected for the second quarter of 2022 on the number of sales of holiday homes they are even better than those yielded for the market as a whole. The majority of real estate agents interviewed expect:

• Number of sales still growing (48.2% of the sample);
• Prices at 2021 levels (in the opinion of 61.7% of those interviewed);
• Rental fees like those recorded in 2021 (in the opinion of 48.6% of the panel, with a share of 46.3% assuming further increases.

Andrea Oliva, coordinator of the Fimaa Research Office: “ In these first four months of 2022, the situation in the housing sales market identifies a stable demand that continues to express its strength, an offer that is starting to show the first signs of less abundance, the number of trades at 2021 levels, and prices that are growing by the same percentages recorded in 2021, with the exception of the values ​​of new products for which there is a greater intensity, due to the probable increases in the prices of raw materials".

Santino Taverna, national president of Fimaa: "The high propensity to save of Italian families represents one of the strong points for the development of the economy in the coming months. The positive opinions expressed by consumers, interviewed last April by Istat, on their intentions to purchase a home in the coming months have never been so high since 2014. The market is mainly driven by the purchases of young people who can access subsidized financing, but just under a quarter of home purchases are for investment. Given the increases that have been achieved in rents rental, compared to the sales prices of properties that have never been so convenient, in the current market phase real estate investment allows you to achieve interesting profitability, competitive when compared with those of government bonds, plus you can hope for a capital appreciation given that, historically, housing prices in periods of rising inflation have always allowed purchasing power to remain unchanged".